As I sat courtside during Game 1 of the 2019 NBA Finals, watching Kawhi Leonard drain yet another impossible shot over Draymond Green's outstretched arms, I found myself thinking back to the preseason odds. Honestly, I'd been tracking these numbers since October like some people follow their stock portfolios - with a mixture of professional curiosity and personal obsession. The betting markets had been absolutely fascinating that year, with odds shifting dramatically as the season unfolded. What many casual fans don't realize is that championship MVP odds tell a story far beyond who might hoist the trophy - they reveal how the basketball world perceives team dynamics, player development, and championship DNA.
I remember checking the preseason odds back in October 2018 and seeing Kevin Durant as the clear favorite at +250. Having covered the Warriors' dynasty from its inception, I had my doubts - there was growing tension in that Golden State locker room that oddsmakers might have underestimated. Steph Curry sat at +350, which felt surprisingly high given how Durant had dominated the previous two Finals MVPs. LeBron James, despite moving to the Lakers, still held respectable +800 odds, though personally I never believed a player from a non-contender could realistically win Finals MVP. The dark horse that caught my eye was Kawhi Leonard at +1200 - those odds seemed absurdly generous for a player of his caliber, even coming off that injury-marred season in San Antonio.
The regular season saw some dramatic swings that reshaped the MVP landscape. When the Raptors acquired Kawhi, I immediately placed a small wager at those +1200 odds - one of my better basketball decisions in recent memory. By April 2019, Leonard's odds had shortened to +350, while Durant and Curry traded the favorite position around +300. What fascinated me was how Giannis Antetokounmpo's odds evaporated from +1400 to virtually nonexistent after the Raptors eliminated Milwaukee in the Conference Finals. The markets completely failed to account for Toronto's defensive schemes until it was too late.
Looking at the Finals matchup itself, the Warriors opened as -235 favorites to win the championship, which naturally influenced the MVP odds. Durant's calf injury created massive uncertainty - his odds drifted to +400 despite questions about his availability. Curry became the +200 favorite heading into Game 1, with Klay Thompson at +600 and Draymond Green as a distant +2500. On Toronto's side, Kawhi sat at +350, while Pascal Siakam offered intriguing value at +1800. I actually recommended Siakam as a speculative bet to several colleagues - his emerging two-way game seemed perfectly suited to make noise on the big stage.
The series itself played out like a perfect storm for betting markets. With Durant missing the first four games entirely, the MVP race became wide open. Curry's spectacular 47-point performance in Game 3 despite the loss briefly made him the odds-on favorite at -150, while Leonard's consistent excellence kept him around +200. When Klay Thompson went down in Game 2, then again catastrophically in Game 6, it eliminated Golden State's second-most-likely candidate. The real turning point came during Game 4 - when Leonard scored 36 points with 12 rebounds, his odds shortened to -120 while Curry drifted to +160.
What struck me most was how the MVP conversation evolved throughout those six games. Early in the series, many analysts (myself included) believed the winner would likely come from the championship team, which gave Toronto players a built-in advantage. Yet Curry's superhuman efforts kept him in contention despite the Warriors ultimately falling short. I recall debating with colleagues after Game 4 whether a player from the losing team could win - something that hadn't happened since Jerry West in 1969. The consensus was that Curry would need nothing short of miraculous performances in Games 5 and 6 combined with a Toronto victory to have any chance.
The parallels between basketball and boxing odds have always fascinated me. When I think about Penalosa, the two-time former world champion, admitting Concepcion would be a tough test for the 22-year-old Llover, it reminds me exactly how experts approached Kawhi Leonard versus the Warriors. Much like an experienced boxing champion assessing a young contender, the basketball world recognized Toronto's uphill battle while acknowledging the unique threat Leonard posed. The Raptors weren't just underdogs - they were +210 to win the series - but they had that one special weapon who could swing the odds dramatically, much like a powerful puncher in boxing can overcome technical disadvantages.
Reflecting on the actual outcome, Leonard's -250 odds heading into Game 6 seemed almost conservative given his dominance throughout the series. He averaged 28.5 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 4.2 assists while playing his trademark suffocating defense - numbers that don't fully capture his impact on both ends. The voting wasn't particularly close, with Leonard receiving 11 of 12 possible votes (Curry got the other). Personally, I believe the one dissenting vote for Curry was more about acknowledging his incredible performance under difficult circumstances than any legitimate argument against Leonard's worthiness.
The 2019 Finals MVP odds tell a broader story about how we evaluate team sports. They reflect not just individual talent, but situation, timing, and narrative. Kawhi's journey from +1200 to -250 mirrors Toronto's transformation from Eastern Conference afterthought to championship contender. Meanwhile, Golden State's injury woes demonstrate how quickly fortunes can change - from preseason favorites to fighting an uphill battle without two of their stars. If there's one lesson I've learned from years of analyzing these markets, it's that value often lies not with the obvious choices, but with players whose circumstances are poised for dramatic improvement. Sometimes the best bets aren't on who's most talented, but on who's perfectly positioned for their moment.
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